When Will AGI Arrive?
AGI timelines are among the most actively debated prediction markets in technology. The question of when artificial intelligence will match or exceed human-level performance across all cognitive tasks draws traders from AI research, technology, finance, and policy backgrounds.
Recent advances in large language models, reasoning capabilities, and multi-modal systems have compressed AGI timeline estimates dramatically. Prediction markets now show significantly earlier expected dates compared to even 2023, reflecting the rapid pace of capability gains from labs like OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and others.
Because expert opinion ranges from "AGI by 2027" to "AGI is decades away," prediction markets serve a crucial role in weighting these divergent views by conviction. The current market consensus, shown below, represents the most calibrated public estimate of AGI timelines available.
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