What Are the Odds of Trump Winning?

Trump's odds in prediction markets are among the most actively traded political markets in the world. With billions of dollars in total volume, these markets reflect a deep and liquid signal on his electoral prospects that updates continuously as new information emerges.

Prediction market odds for Trump factor in polling data, campaign developments, legal proceedings, economic conditions, and opponent dynamics. Because traders stand to lose real money if they are wrong, these markets tend to be more calibrated than polls alone, especially in accounting for turnout uncertainty and state-level dynamics.

The markets below show current trader consensus on various Trump-related outcomes. Compare the odds across different scenarios and timeframes to form your own view.