What Are the Odds of a Recession?

Prediction markets provide one of the most reliable signals for recession probability because traders put real money behind their forecasts. Unlike survey-based indicators or pundit opinions, these odds reflect the aggregate conviction of thousands of participants who have financial skin in the game.

The current market odds incorporate a wide range of economic data, including GDP growth trends, employment figures, yield curve movements, and Federal Reserve policy decisions. When these factors shift, the odds update in real time, making prediction markets a leading indicator rather than a lagging one.

Historical data shows prediction markets have consistently outperformed traditional economic forecasting models. Browse the live markets below to see exactly where traders are positioning themselves on recession timing and severity.