
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?
Share:Trade this
66%
probability
--
24h change
$297K
24h volume
$16K
liquidity
Yes
66%
No
35%
Think you know the answer?
Put real money on your prediction.
Quick call
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?
Resolution Criteria
Donald Trump announced a deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz of Tuesday, April 7, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET (see: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/world/middleeast/trump-threat-strait-peace.html).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump officially announces that this deadline has been extended or will not be enforced by Tuesday April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly state that the deadline has been extended or will not be enforced, including by providing a new deadline or through statements such as “the deadline has been moved back.” Broader statements, such as “we made good progress with Iran,” will qualify only if they are clearly and explicitly made in the context of an announcement that the deadline is being extended or not being enforced.
If no qualifying announcement has been made by Tuesday, April 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”, regardless of whether the deadline is enforced.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, including on his official social media accounts. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify a qualifying announcement.
Market ends: April 7, 2026
Related Markets

Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1% probability

Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
0% probability

Trump out as President by April 30?
2% probability

Will La U win the third most seats in the 2026 Colombian Chamber of Representatives election?
1% probability