Outcalled
Will Trump deport 400-500k people?

Will Trump deport 400-500k people?

24%

probability

+4.5%

24h change

$259

24h volume

$18K

liquidity

Yes

24%

No

76%

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Quick call

Will Trump deport 400-500k people?

Resolution Criteria

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf). This market will resolve according to the number of non citizens removed by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) in the 2026 fiscal year. The resolution source will be the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2026 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used.

Market ends: December 31, 2026