Outcalled
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?

Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?

0%

probability

--

24h change

$10K

24h volume

$0

liquidity

Yes

0%

No

100%

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Quick call

Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government explicitly claims Iran is responsible for the attack near the U.S. Embassy in Oslo on March 7, 2026, by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Claims can come from statements by the U.S. government, military, or intelligence services. Official confirmation requires an on-the-record public statement issued by the U.S. government, through an authorized governmental person or entity, speaking in an official capacity, which expressly states that Iran carried out the attack. The primary resolution source will be official government statements. Ambiguous statements which imply responsibility but which do not directly claim it will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government.