Outcalled
Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?

Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?

1%

probability

--

24h change

$4K

24h volume

$5K

liquidity

Yes

1%

No

99%

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Quick call

Will Elon Musk pay TSA salaries?

Resolution Criteria

Elon Musk offered to pay the salaries of Transportation Security Administration employees affected by the Department of Homeland Security shutdown that began on February 14, 2026 (see: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2035306094281855336?s=20). This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Elon Musk, or a company for which Elon Musk is the largest shareholder, pays any Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employee for time during the shutdown for which that employee has not been paid by the U.S. government by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying compensation may be provided directly to affected TSA employees, indirectly through a third-party vehicle, or through funding provided to the U.S. government for the expressed purpose of compensating affected TSA employees. An official announcement from the United States government, or from Elon Musk and subsequently confirmed by the United States government, that Elon Musk will provide qualifying compensation to any TSA employee will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether receipt of payment has yet been publicly confirmed. Offers, statements of intent, proposals, or other supportive statements that are not accompanied by an official announcement as described above will not qualify. Payments that will later be returned once DHS funding is supplied may still qualify, provided Elon Musk supplies the initial monetary payment. Assistance that is not monetary payment, including donations of food, transportation, or other non-wage benefits, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Elon Musk, the United States federal government, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Market ends: April 14, 2026