Outcalled
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

69%

probability

-8.0%

24h change

$37K

24h volume

$45K

liquidity

Yes

69%

No

32%

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Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market ends: December 31, 2026