
Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?
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probability
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Yes
0%
No
100%
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Insurrection Act invoked by January 31?
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market ends: December 31, 2026