Outcalled
Insurrection Act invoked by April 30?

Insurrection Act invoked by April 30?

3%

probability

--

24h change

$150

24h volume

$11K

liquidity

Yes

3%

No

97%

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Quick call

Insurrection Act invoked by April 30?

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Market ends: December 31, 2026